setwd('C:/local/classes/M588')

##25
data <- read.csv("el2000.csv", header = TRUE)     
attach(data)
 names(data)

lbuchanan <- log(buchanan2000[county != 'PALM BEACH'])
lbush <- log(bush2000[county != 'PALM BEACH'])       
      # log-log, indicating a power model, seems the best

 lm1 <- lm(lbuchanan ~ lbush) 
 plot(lbush, lbuchanan)
   abline(lm1$coef[1], lm1$coef[2])
 summary(lm1)                       ## though it is strange that the power is not 1!

 palmbeach <- data.frame(lbush = log(bush2000[county == 'PALM BEACH'] )) 
 exp(predict(lm1,palmbeach  , interval = 'prediction'))
    ## with 95% confidence, Buchanan would have expected to get between 592 and 1399 votes in Palm Beach

(misGore <- buchanan2000[county == 'PALM BEACH'] - 1399   )    ## Obama????